Crypto Value Lab v 1.0.4
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Market Cycle

A qualitative view of the U.S. economic cycle, informed by market and policy evidence.

Illustrative economic and market cycles with historical sector leadership; @PriceCompute

Assessment date ·

Late expansion — resilient growth, persistent inflation risk

U.S. growth accelerated in the third quarter, October hiring improved and both ISM surveys remain expansionary. Core PCE inflation remains above target, new services orders slowed and equities have pulled back on uneven participation. Credit spreads widened modestly while broad financial conditions stayed looser than average.

The marker stays at its October 24 position. Faster reported GDP, stronger hiring and expansionary PMIs offset weaker equity participation and persistent price pressure. Leading, labor and credit evidence does not show a broad, sustained deterioration or a meaningful shift further into Late Expansion.

Assessment strength: Moderate

Qualitative analyst judgment based on mixed economic and financial evidence.

Six dimensions

Evidence behind the assessment

Observation periods differ from the assessment date. These are dated releases, not real-time readings.

supportive

Growth and business activity

Q3 real GDP +3.4% annualized versus +2.2% in Q2. October manufacturing and services both expanded.

View observations and sources
Real GDP, advance estimate
+3.4% annualized; Q2 +2.2%Q3 2026Published

Private domestic final sales accelerated to 4.9% from 4.6%. The advance estimate may be revised.

BEA GDP advance estimate ↗
Manufacturing PMI / new orders
55.5 / 55.5October 2026Published

Both rose from September. The prices index eased to 75.2 and still shows widespread increases.

ISM Manufacturing ↗
Services PMI / new orders
54.5 / 55.9October 2026Published

Services kept expanding while orders slowed from 59.8.

ISM Services ↗
supportive

Leading indicators

September LEI was flat and up 0.6% over six months. The CEI rose 0.3% in September.

View observations and sources
Leading Economic Index
99.6; flat m/m; +0.6% over six monthsSeptember 2026Published

The previous six months fell 1.1%. Expectations, orders and permits still weighed on the latest reading.

Conference Board ↗
Coincident Economic Index
115.3; +0.3% m/m; +0.9% over six monthsSeptember 2026Published

Coincident activity continued to expand.

Conference Board ↗
supportive

Labor market

October payrolls +165,000 and unemployment 4.1%. Initial claims fell to 189,000.

View observations and sources
Nonfarm payrolls / unemployment
+165,000 / 4.1%October 2026Published

August and September payrolls were revised up to 186,000 and 60,000. Unemployment eased from 4.2%.

BLS Employment Situation ↗
Hourly earnings / involuntary part-time
+3.1% YoY / +339,000 peopleOctober 2026Published

More workers took part-time hours for economic reasons, a softer signal within the release.

BLS Employment Situation ↗
Initial unemployment claims
189,000; four-week average 194,750Week ending October 31, 2026Published

Low initial claims are consistent with limited layoffs.

U.S. Department of Labor ↗
warning

Inflation and monetary policy

September core PCE +3.1% YoY. The Fed held at 3.75%–4.00% on October 28.

View observations and sources
Headline / core CPI
+3.7% / +2.6% YoY; +0.6% / +0.3% m/mSeptember 2026Published

Headline inflation accelerated during the month.

BLS CPI ↗
Headline / core PCE
+3.6% / +3.1% YoY; +0.5% / +0.3% m/mSeptember 2026Published

Underlying inflation remains elevated. Real consumer spending was flat after rounding.

BEA Personal Income and Outlays ↗
Federal funds target
3.75%–4.00%; heldOctober 28, 2026 decisionPublished

Policy remains tight against the backdrop of above-target inflation. Two members favored a rate increase.

Federal Reserve ↗
mixed

Equity trend and breadth

S&P 500 down 5.65% from its October record. About 56% of tracked constituents remain above their 200-day averages.

View observations and sources
S&P 500 close
7,376.86; −2.7% on the week; +7.8% YTDNovember 6, 2026Published

The pullback deepened while the year-to-date trend remained positive.

Associated Press ↗
S&P 500 record reference close
7,818.93October 6, 2026Published

The drawdown compares the latest close with this reported reference close.

GSDAQ market close ↗
Market participation
277 of 497 above 200-day averages; 180 advanced, 319 declinedNovember 6, 2026Published

Weak participation in the daily rebound. A majority remains above its longer-term average.

ChartRow breadth calculations ↗
supportive

Financial conditions

NFCI −0.459, still looser than average. Credit spreads edged wider and the Treasury curve stayed positive.

View observations and sources
National Financial Conditions Index
−0.459; previous week −0.467 (revised)Week ending October 30, 2026Published

The index tightened slightly and remains below its historical average.

Chicago Fed via FRED ↗
High-yield option-adjusted spread
348 bp; prior close 332 bpNovember 5, 2026Published

Wider spreads warrant monitoring for persistence.

ICE BofA US High Yield via FRED ↗
Investment-grade option-adjusted spread
93 bp; prior close 91 bpNovember 5, 2026Published

The move was modest relative to high yield.

ICE BofA US Corporate via FRED ↗
Treasury curve
10Y 4.86%; 2Y 4.51%; 3M 4.19%November 6, 2026Published

The 10Y–2Y spread was +35 bp and the 10Y–3M spread was +67 bp.

U.S. Treasury daily par yields ↗

Experimental / Research only

Cross-Asset Cycle Sequence

Do bond yields, equities and commodities follow the historical sequence of late-cycle turning points?

No confirmed sequence Research cutoff

  1. Treasury Yields

    10-year constant-maturity yield

    4.86%

    Trailing 12-month high
    5.31% · 5 Oct 2026
    Change from high
    -45 bp
    Reversal status
    Unconfirmed
    Peak used by reversal
    —
    Confirmable on
    —

  2. S&P 500

    S&P 500 Price Index

    7,376.86

    Trailing 12-month high
    7,818.93 · 6 Oct 2026
    Change from high
    -5.65%
    Reversal status
    Unconfirmed
    Peak used by reversal
    —
    Confirmable on
    —

  3. Commodities

    World Bank Pink Sheet Total Index

    149.2

    Trailing 12-month high
    149.2 · 31 Oct 2026
    Change from high
    0%
    Reversal status
    Unconfirmed
    Peak used by reversal
    —
    Confirmable on
    —

Turning points over time

  • World Bank commodities (start = 100)
  • 10-year Treasury yield (%)
  • S&P 500 events only
  • ● Peak
  • ◇ Confirmation
Current · November 2026 Commodity prices rebased to 100 on the left, with Treasury yields in percent on the right. Asset events appear in lanes above the time series. Use the date slider below to read points and events. 160 6% 140 5.5% 120 5% 100 4.5% 80 4% 2025-112026-052026-11 2026-11-06 · 10Y 4.86%

Treasury line sampled every fifth published session. The World Bank series is monthly. S&P price history is excluded from the chart under its data terms. Markers show the first qualifying reversal in each asset for the selected historical window.

Historical results and forward returns

3 of 5 selected episodes produced a full sequence at some point in the replay. The 2020 shock and 2022–2023 market cycle produced none. Samples are selected episodes and may contain overlapping signals.

Peak and confirmation below refer to the first confirmed reversal of each asset within the episode. Retrospective maxima use the entire displayed window. Peak gaps are measured in calendar days and can be negative. A yield confirmation is counted as incomplete if the same yield event fails to lead to a full sequence within 12 months of confirmation. Only yield events with 12 months of follow-up inside the episode enter that count.

  • Equity-only reversal · 8 signals · mean S&P price returns at 3 / 6 / 12 months +0.4% / +5.7% / +3.5%
  • Ordered yield + equity · 6 signals · mean S&P price returns at 3 / 6 / 12 months +0.3% / +1.1% / -6.8%
  • Full sequence · 4 signals · mean S&P price returns at 3 / 6 / 12 months +0.6% / +2.1% / +4.6%

Returns use the first observation strictly after the signal and the first on or after each anniversary. Older equity results use Shiller’s monthly averages. Episode selection, mixed frequencies, overlapping returns and the small sample prevent an inference of incremental predictive power over the equity-only trigger.

1990 recession cycle · 1 full sequence · ordering conflicts observed

1989-01-01 to 1991-12-31. Monthly Shiller equity averages.

  • Treasury Yields · 749 observations · retrospective maximum 1989-03-21 · first peak 1989-03-21 · first confirmation 1989-06-05
  • S&P 500 · 35 observations · retrospective maximum 1991-08-31 · first peak 1990-06-30 · first confirmation 1990-10-10
  • Commodities · 35 observations · retrospective maximum 1990-10-31 · first peak 1990-10-31 · first confirmation 1991-02-10

First peak gaps (yields to equities / equities to commodities) 466 days / 123 days. Ordered pairs 1. Incomplete yield signals 1 of 2 with full follow-up.

  • · Treasury reversal · S&P +7.3% / +7.7% / +11.3% · BTC -29.7% / -39.6% / -2.0%
  • · Equity-only reversal · S&P +6.0% / +23.6% / +26.0% · BTC -29.7% / -39.6% / -2.0%
  • · Treasury reversal · S&P +14.9% / +19.9% / +22.4% · BTC -29.7% / -39.6% / -2.0%
  • · Ordered yield + equity · S&P +14.9% / +19.9% / +22.4% · BTC -29.7% / -39.6% / -2.0%
  • · Commodity reversal · S&P +4.3% / +7.5% / +13.9% · BTC -29.7% / -39.6% / -2.0%
  • · Full sequence · S&P +4.3% / +7.5% / +13.9% · BTC -29.7% / -39.6% / -2.0%
  • · Treasury reversal · S&P +6.9% / +7.5% / +9.6% · BTC -29.7% / -39.6% / -2.0%
2000–2002 · 1 full sequence · ordering conflicts observed

1999-01-01 to 2002-12-31. Monthly Shiller equity averages.

  • Treasury Yields · 999 observations · retrospective maximum 2000-01-21 · first peak 2000-01-21 · first confirmation 2000-04-05
  • S&P 500 · 47 observations · retrospective maximum 2000-08-31 · first peak 2000-08-31 · first confirmation 2001-01-10
  • Commodities · 47 observations · retrospective maximum 2000-11-30 · first peak 2000-11-30 · first confirmation 2001-08-10

First peak gaps (yields to equities / equities to commodities) 223 days / 91 days. Ordered pairs 3. Incomplete yield signals 1 of 2 with full follow-up.

  • · Treasury reversal · S&P +0.8% / -4.9% / -18.6% · BTC -29.7% / -39.6% / -2.0%
  • · Equity-only reversal · S&P -10.9% / -9.8% / -14.6% · BTC -29.7% / -39.6% / -2.0%
  • · Ordered yield + equity · S&P -10.9% / -9.8% / -14.6% · BTC -29.7% / -39.6% / -2.0%
  • · Commodity reversal · S&P -4.1% / -6.6% / -22.6% · BTC -29.7% / -39.6% / -2.0%
  • · Treasury reversal · S&P -4.1% / -6.6% / -22.6% · BTC -29.7% / -39.6% / -2.0%
  • · Ordered yield + equity · S&P -4.1% / -6.6% / -22.6% · BTC -29.7% / -39.6% / -2.0%
  • · Full sequence · S&P -4.1% / -6.6% / -22.6% · BTC -29.7% / -39.6% / -2.0%
  • · Treasury reversal · S&P -1.9% / -17.1% / -24.0% · BTC -29.7% / -39.6% / -2.0%
  • · Equity-only reversal · S&P -15.4% / -15.7% / -13.3% · BTC -29.7% / -39.6% / -2.0%
  • · Ordered yield + equity · S&P -14.4% / -11.3% / -2.6% · BTC -29.7% / -39.6% / -2.0%
  • · Treasury reversal · S&P -5.8% / +9.9% / +20.2% · BTC -29.7% / -39.6% / -2.0%
2007–2009 · 2 full sequences · ordering conflicts observed

2006-01-01 to 2009-12-31. Monthly Shiller equity averages.

  • Treasury Yields · 1001 observations · retrospective maximum 2007-06-12 · first peak 2006-06-28 · first confirmation 2006-10-11
  • S&P 500 · 47 observations · retrospective maximum 2007-10-31 · first peak 2007-10-31 · first confirmation 2008-02-10
  • Commodities · 47 observations · retrospective maximum 2008-07-31 · first peak 2008-07-31 · first confirmation 2008-10-10

First peak gaps (yields to equities / equities to commodities) 490 days / 274 days. Ordered pairs 2. Incomplete yield signals 2 of 2 with full follow-up.

  • · Treasury reversal · S&P +4.5% / +7.4% / +12.9% · BTC -29.7% / -39.6% / -2.0%
  • · Treasury reversal · S&P -1.2% / -12.0% / -18.7% · BTC -29.7% / -39.6% / -2.0%
  • · Equity-only reversal · S&P +3.6% / -5.4% / -40.6% · BTC -29.7% / -39.6% / -2.0%
  • · Ordered yield + equity · S&P +3.6% / -5.4% / -40.6% · BTC -29.7% / -39.6% / -2.0%
  • · Commodity reversal · S&P -10.7% / -12.5% / +10.2% · BTC -29.7% / -39.6% / -2.0%
  • · Full sequence · S&P -10.7% / -12.5% / +10.2% · BTC -29.7% / -39.6% / -2.0%
  • · Treasury reversal · S&P -2.0% / +8.1% / +29.8% · BTC -29.7% / -39.6% / -2.0%
  • · Equity-only reversal · S&P +12.8% / +19.9% / +17.0% · BTC -29.7% / -39.6% / -2.0%
  • · Ordered yield + equity · S&P +12.8% / +19.9% / +17.0% · BTC -29.7% / -39.6% / -2.0%
  • · Full sequence · S&P +12.8% / +19.9% / +17.0% · BTC -29.7% / -39.6% / -2.0%
  • · Treasury reversal · S&P +6.3% / +10.3% / +7.4% · BTC -29.7% / -39.6% / -2.0%
2020 shock · 0 full sequences · ordering conflicts observed

2019-01-01 to 2020-12-31. Daily S&P closes.

  • Treasury Yields · 500 observations · retrospective maximum 2019-01-18 · first peak 2018-11-08 · first confirmation 2019-02-20
  • S&P 500 · 504 observations · retrospective maximum 2020-12-28 · first peak 2020-02-19 · first confirmation 2020-02-28
  • Commodities · 23 observations · retrospective maximum 2019-04-30 · first peak 2018-10-31 · first confirmation 2019-01-10

First peak gaps (yields to equities / equities to commodities) 468 days / -476 days. Ordered pairs 0. Incomplete yield signals 1 of 1 with full follow-up.

  • · Commodity reversal · S&P +11.2% / +15.5% / +26.6% · BTC +38.7% / +211.5% / +120.1%
  • · Treasury reversal · S&P +3.2% / +5.4% / +20.3% · BTC +104.0% / +160.1% / +148.8%
  • · Equity-only reversal · S&P -0.3% / +15.9% / +25.2% · BTC +10.2% / +34.1% / +430.3%
  • · Treasury reversal · S&P +10.6% / +17.4% / +34.3% · BTC +5.7% / +100.9% / +305.4%
  • · Commodity reversal · S&P +11.3% / +22.0% / +41.5% · BTC +12.3% / +94.9% / +302.7%
  • · Treasury reversal · S&P +7.1% / +14.1% / +26.1% · BTC +167.1% / +79.5% / +122.6%
2022–2023 · 0 full sequences · ordering conflicts observed

2021-01-01 to 2023-12-31. Daily S&P closes.

  • Treasury Yields · 749 observations · retrospective maximum 2023-10-19 · first peak 2022-06-14 · first confirmation 2022-08-11
  • S&P 500 · 752 observations · retrospective maximum 2022-01-03 · first peak 2022-01-03 · first confirmation 2022-02-23
  • Commodities · 35 observations · retrospective maximum 2022-06-30 · first peak 2022-06-30 · first confirmation 2022-12-10

First peak gaps (yields to equities / equities to commodities) -162 days / 178 days. Ordered pairs 0. Incomplete yield signals 2 of 2 with full follow-up.

  • · Equity-only reversal · S&P -8.1% / -3.4% / -7.4% · BTC -22.8% / -44.3% / -39.6%
  • · Treasury reversal · S&P -7.5% / -3.3% / +4.9% · BTC -31.2% / -10.7% / +20.6%
  • · Commodity reversal · S&P -3.4% / +8.7% / +16.4% · BTC +20.6% / +51.8% / +141.1%
  • · Treasury reversal · S&P +2.8% / +14.5% / +23.1% · BTC +50.6% / +58.4% / +154.0%
  • · Equity-only reversal · S&P +15.5% / +20.1% / +36.0% · BTC +22.9% / +75.1% / +100.4%
  • · Treasury reversal · S&P +10.7% / +16.3% / +31.6% · BTC +56.6% / +59.3% / +121.0%
Sequence methodology and sources

Citrini Research proposed Treasury yields → equities → commodities as a late-cycle hypothesis in State of the Themes, November 4, 2026, pages 55–57. A peak in yields generally corresponds to a trough in Treasury bond prices. Historical peaks are easier to recognize after the fact. The sequence can occur in a different order and does not establish that a recession will follow.

Crypto Value Lab calculates the indicator independently. This experimental reading provides context for the six macro dimensions. It carries no mechanical weight in the cycle classification or clock. The Bitcoin forward-return comparison is separate from the Bitcoin Bottom Index.

Initial thresholds from trailing 12-month highs are 50 basis points for 15 consecutive Treasury sessions, 10% for the S&P 500 and 15% for the commodity proxy. The last two confirm on one observation. The peak date determines order and confirmation must wait until the threshold observations are available. Equal dates are treated as ambiguous ordering conflicts.

The latest equal high sets the candidate date before confirmation. An active confirmation survives a retest and expires at a higher high or after 18 months from the peak. Each asset updates on its own calendar. Recognized recurring market holidays are skipped. Unclassified closures and missing fixes break a confirmation run, while gaps over seven days daily or 62 days monthly restart the 12-month history check. Stale inputs use the same day limits and make the overall status unavailable. Missing values are never filled.

Historical estimates use latest-vintage observations in release order, with next-weekday availability for daily fixes and the tenth of the following month for monthly values. The October 2026 World Bank observation was published November 3. Dates on the chart use month-end for monthly observations. Historical release timestamps and vintage revisions are unavailable, so the replay approximates what was knowable on each date. No thresholds were fitted to the selected episodes.

Market Cycle methodology · qualitative-v1.1

A qualitative classification

Growth, leading indicators and labor describe economic activity. Equity trend and breadth describe the market cycle. Inflation and rate decisions inform the monetary-policy cycle. Financial conditions capture funding and risk appetite. These six dimensions can diverge.

Supportive means consistent with expansion. Mixed signals point in different directions and warning signals indicate elevated downside risk. Moderate strength reflects resilient activity alongside inflation and market risks. The cross-asset sequence adds context and carries no mechanical weight.

What would change the phase?

A phase change requires analyst review of persistent, corroborating signals across multiple independent indicators. Early contraction requires broad deterioration in activity, corroborated by at least two of growth, leading indicators and labor across successive releases. A single market decline or indicator update cannot automatically change the phase.

Early expansion requires broad recovery after contraction; late expansion combines positive activity with mounting inflation or capacity pressure. Full contraction requires sustained, widespread activity declines. These are review criteria, not calibrated forecasting thresholds.

Sources and maintenance

Research cutoff . Observation periods and source publication dates are recorded separately. We show the time where verified. Sources may revise previous readings. Scheduled releases beyond the cutoff are excluded. If a release is delayed, retain the latest verified observation with its original date and reassess its relevance.

This manually reviewed snapshot is shared with the homepage. The preceding qualitative-v1.0 assessment was dated 24 Oct 2026. The conceptual clock conveys phase and qualitative position, with no implied cycle duration.

Next review dates

Scheduled releases still in the future at the research cutoff; their results are excluded.

  • · October CPI
  • · October LEI
  • · Final November consumer sentiment
  • · October PCE

Research assessment only. Historical sector leadership can diverge.